1. As we wrote before, the trajectory of the line that leads to a certain semblance of "Large Transnistria" is explained by the desire of the Russian Federation to avoid the direct confrontation with the West. And this is exactly the main spring of the negotiating process. It is quite obvious that this "new Transnistria" won't remain in Ukraine.
2. The future of Novorossia is no more than a bargaining chip here: if they'll agree in one way, then there will be one future, if they'll agree in a different way – another future. If they won't agree altogether – yet another future.
Not much actually depends here on the political leadership of Novorossia, they are in a subordinate position with respect to the current political line of Moscow and they are fully dependent on shipments of the humanitarian aid. However, there is a factor of "armed people", who have a very negative view of what is happening, but for now their discontent is purely verbal.
3. Regarding the pharisaic cry of "Winter will come, it will be bad" – providing the population in the rear strip is possible even during the ongoing war, thankfully in the DPR and the LPR there are more than enough areas that are completely cleaned from the junta military. The necessity of shipping food and fuel to Krasnodon or Yenakiyevo is not changed in any way by whether there is a war going on somewhere in the Dnieper area. Building life there and driving the junta further back are not mutually exclusive concepts. So, when I hear the argument of "winter is coming", then I involuntarily doubt the psychiatric well-being of such a person (well, except for the paid characters, who have to translate this BS in the media). If there was a strong desire to save the lives of people (as they tell us), then there were possibilities for this associated with a military intervention in the spring and also along with more expeditious work of the "military surplus store" in the summer. Otherwise, it ends up like this: first they melancholically observed as thousands of people perished and the infrastructure of the life of a couple of millions was destroyed and then they suddenly yelled "winter is coming, time to wrap it up". Formally this seems to be right, but essentially this is a disgusting joke.
4. The fact that the junta military is retreating from encirclements clearly suggests that there are certain backstage agreements on the separation of territory that is controlled by Novorossia and the junta. Of course the field commanders are strictly against the fact that they are left with a bombarded and defective stump of two regions instead of the desired Novorossia. From this originate the demands in the spirit of "at least drive the junta out of the territory of Donetsk and Lugansk regions". Meanwhile, the junta is forced to retreat from encirclements in which its military were sitting. At the same time it continues to destroy Donbass infrastructure. Overall, by the last decade of September the beneficial possibility of routing major junta groups that sat in cauldrons and suspicious protrusions was lost. It was exchanged for a "piece of paper that means nothing".
5. The vindicators of the agreement in the beginning told us that this agreement is a worthless piece of paper, then they told us that Kuchma is a nobody, then that nobody among those who had to sign it actually signed it, and those who signed it had a wrong status. Actually, we see a step-by-step plan on creating of a stump of Novorossia with a certain configuration, which is being implemented to the extent of the abilities of its masters. The role of Kuchma is the role of damper-gasket, in order to soften the effect of the ongoing clusterfuck so that people wouldn't go nuts when Yatsenyuk, Turchinov, or Poroshenko would sit opposite of Zurabov.
Those who tried to present this piece of paper as something inessential were at best engaged in self-deception. At worst – they simply service a certain line directed at creating a certain informational camouflage around this piece of paper.
6. However, the hopes of being able to buy a respite in escalation of tensions with the West and slow down the roll of sanctions at the price of such an exchange of Novorossia appear delusive even now. The West already effectively saved the junta from a direct military defeat in Donbass. Now, by occupying the dominating positions, it is pushing its variant of solving the issue. Meanwhile, it is not forgetting about Crimea, which is now a convenient hook for introducing absolutely arbitrary sanction packages. Together with a fortifying position in Donbass, this gives the USA a convenient and quite cheap set of instruments for pressuring Russia, which includes the use of the fascist junta that preserved its power in Kiev. Those who counted on the war leading to the next Nuremberg can consider themselves free of their expectations, at least for now. If one of the main sponsors of mass murder is now considered to be a respectable politician "who needs to be saved" in Moscow, then the majority of main sponsors and executors of the bloodbath will definitely avoid the responsibility. However, the characters like Kolomoisky, Korban, Filatov, Lyashko, Semenchenko, Yarosh, and a number of other people may come to harm in the end, including physical harm. Some little guys will of course be designated one way or another. The fascist discontent with one or another aspect of the collusion is inessential – the American puppets have no vote in the questions of global exchanges. In some other conditions they could lose a number of other regions and if Washington would pull certain threads, then no matter how much Lyashko would write in Facebook, the masses would obediently accept such a decision too.
7. Whether this particular collusion will be pushed to the end is not yet a given. In Novorossia itself and in Russia there is a serious opposition to this course, which is why an informational campaign under the banner of "such good and beautiful is this piece of paper that means absolutely nothing" was required. The stupidity or the necessity to serve the line of protecting the commercial interests of the Russian oligarchy, which is under threat, is a quite nutritional soil for translating such view. However, because such a course looks so unpresentable, it is quite hard to implement it using orders – they are afraid of overturning the thread. The frog needs to be boiled slowly, so that people wouldn't be able to understand how they ended up in a new depressive Transnistria instead of Novorossia. It only remains to wait for the collective decision of the military.
Original article: http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1802384.html (in Russian)