cassad_eng (cassad_eng) wrote,

Results of July 1st Combat

Summing up the results of yesterday's fighting, we can state that across a number of locations the junta performed reconnaissance in force, which was combined with preparatory bombardment. The direct combat clashes near Karlovka, Krasnodon, Izvarino, and Krasnopartizansk did not lead to decisive outcomes due to the limited amount of the junta's forces as well as due to stubborn resistance by the militia.

If in the vicinity of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk the junta mostly limited itself to mass shelling and insignificant tactical relocations, then near Karlovka an attempt was made to make progress towards Donetsk, however without significant success. The most substantive fighting unfolded in the border areas of the LPR and the Russian Federation. The large-scale combat in the vicinity of Izvarino showed that in order to cut communications between the DPR and the LPR and Russia, the junta will have to use a lot more forces and suffer fairly significant losses. During the bloody fighting near Izvarino, the militia held their ground, inflicting significant losses in men and equipment on the junta. The total number of dead and wounded for the militia reached up to 40 men, for the junta – up to 70-75. Besides this, 6 tanks, 13 APC/IFV, and 7 trucks were destroyed (mostly during routing of the junta's mechanized convoy that fell into a killing area. All of this speaks about the fact that the groups that hold the border have a fairly significant arsenal of anti-armor weapons. Also, according to different estimates, the junta's aviation suffered significant losses during yesterday's airstrikes – between 2 and 5 jets and 1 helicopter  were shot down (information is incomplete). Regardless of the number of losses, these facts suggest continued saturation of the militia battle lines with means of air defense, as the result of which effectively any use of aviation in Donbass combat is accompanied with losses. Among the junta's tactical successes from yesterday I would like to note the capture of Dolzhanka, which, even though it wasn't guarded by the militia, was in essence a part of that major hole in the border, which the junta is trying to close up for several weeks already. With its capture, Izvarino, Gukovo, and Krasnopartizansk become the obvious targets of new strikes by the junta's mechanized units . This, perhaps, is the only essential moment for the junta with which it can seek to justify the yesterday's losses.

Systematic shelling of cities and a chance airstrike on Dmitrovka, naturally, cannot accomplish serious military tasks and have a terrorist nature. During yesterday, 20 civilians perished on the Donbass territory as a result of actions performed by the punitive troops.

The junta's artillery near Slavyansk.

As it was mentioned earlier, the "blitzkrieg" plan that floats around the net, when the DPR and the LPR have to be demolished within 48 hours, is clearly divorced from reality. The militia have quite enough forces to resist stubbornly and, even in the case of the junta's advances, the militia defense buys time and inflicts fairly tangible losses on the enemy. Therefore, even if speaking about negative scenarios of the course of events in Donbass, then it is certainly not "blitzkrieg", but rather long and slow squeezing of the militia fighters into cities followed by the bloody street combat. Along with this, the junta, judging from it not throwing all of its forces into battle, is frankly feeling nervous about possible negative results of the offensive, because if the offensive in Donbass chokes, then the question of coordination of forces scattered around Donbass, their poor supplying, and their losses, may indeed lead to the very same counteroffensive, about which the militia is dreaming but for which it currently lacks forces.

In this respect, the relatively low combat intensity of this morning suggests that the unsatisfactory results of yesterday's combat demand more thorough preparation for overcoming militia defenses, they cannot be breached in one swoop. For the militia, yesterday's combat obviously will lead to the growth of morale and self-confidence. The terrorist nature of airstrikes and artillery bombardments of the Donbass cities only strengthens people's determination to fight the junta and in this respect the DPR and the LPR infantry is more resilient than the junta's infantry.

The yesterday's episode in Donetsk, when the DPR forces stormed the district police building, where Gen. Pozhidayev sat with his men, is worth mentioning. The building was captured – between 1 and 7 defendants were killed. At the same time from the junta's side there was an injection of fake news about the conflict between Mr. Borodai and Mr. Bezler. Somewhat later it was refuted, but in a way that left the impression that some kind of conflict actually happened between them, otherwise one cannot explain the appearance of the information about the conflict on the local TV, which is controlled by the DPR, and Mr. Borodai's announcements on this topic. According to one of the versions, Bezler's group simply did not coordinate its actions near the police building with people under the administration's authority, which is where the roots of the injection "about the coup" are growing out of. One way or another, Mr. Strelkov's words about it how good it would be to drive to Donetsk with a battalion and impose order there, but the situation on the front lines doesn't allow to do that, reflect the old problem of the DPR and the LPR: the lack of a united structure of command and control, which leads to some issues or problems and on which the junta is trying to make its play, organizing injections of fake news that exploit the topic of militia's lack of organization and internal conflicts within the DPR leadership.
Nevertheless, despite the fakes and some internal misunderstandings, Donetsk is continuing to be cleansed from the last enclaves of the junta, suggesting systemic nature of this process, which cannot be obstructed by fake news or arguments between the militia fighters.

Overall, the militia may consider the combat of July 1st as its success. The junta's offensive may be expected within 2-3 days. The border checkpoints, the Northern suburbs of Luhansk, and the city of Kramatorsk remain its principal targets. (in Russian) – the online broadcast for July 2nd on the "Voice of Sevastopol". – original article (in Russian).
Tags: donetsk, donetsk people's republic, luhansk people's republic, ukraine, war in ukraine

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