cassad_eng (cassad_eng) wrote,
cassad_eng
cassad_eng

Situation in Donbass as of July 10th


On the background of the events that unfold in Donetsk, where Strelkov is now unifying under his own command effectively all militia units and where the traitors and the conspirators are hiding in the corners like cockroaches, fighting continues on the Donbass territory, which in the light of the military and political maneuver by Strelkov attains somewhat different sounding.

Donesk-Gorlovka Area

There is no serious fighting just yet, there are low-intensity clashes, shelling. The junta forces gradually advance, fearing attacks from the reconnaissance and sabotage groups, and the decision on the topic of what needs to be done with the Donetsk agglomeration isn't made yet. In essence, right now forces are being concentrated – the junta will pull the military, which will be concentrated from the West near Konstantinovka and Karlovka, and from the South from Mariupol the pulling of army convoys was noticed. Nevertheless, the question of encircling Donetsk is linked with capturing Debaltsevo (where there is no fighting yet) and Saur-Mogila, where the junta is marking time for many days now, suffering heavy losses. The Donetsk itself continues to be fortified, new defensive positions are constructed, volunteers are enlisted (yesterday more than 500 locals enlisted with Strelkov), volunteers also arrive from the Russian Federation. There is still 6-7 days left for preparation here.

Saur-Mogila

One of the key locations at this moment – the militia in this area has artillery, tanks, and IFVs. Because the junta does not have a significant advantage in forces here, the attacks result in unjustifiable losses, the communications of the enemy group in this area are constantly subject to attacks by reconnaissance and sabotage groups. Without capturing this dominating height, enveloping Donetsk appears unlikely. This is that case when combat of tactical significance attained first the operational and then the strategic meaning – Saur-Mogila extremely limits the junta's operations in the South of the DPR, which after the appearance of the artillery battery there (approximately 4-5 D-30 cannons) becomes simply dangerous for the stretched communications of the junta that are located in the zone of the militia artillery fire.

Snezhnoye-Torez Area

In the area of Snezhnoye and Torez there are fairly significant militia forces concentrated, which not only prevent the deep bypass of the fortified district in Donetsk-Gorlovka, but, and what is crucial, provide one of the major communications, through which significant amount of humanitarian and military aid flows into Donetsk. The aid which arrives through the border passes through Krasnodon and Antratsit and further through Snezhnoye towards the main front lines. If looking at the map, then it can be seen that the main forces of the militia hold key cities from the point of view of securing the main channel of supplying the DPR, because losing this channel will lead to the immediate collapse of the whole DPR.

Lisichansk-Severodonetsk

The Mozgovoi group continues to hold positions, after leaving Slavyansk the defense is built on the exposed flank, which relies on Seversk. The capture of Popasnaya is a part of work on forming a new defensive line. Here the militia has a few days before the junta will concentrate sufficient forces to transition to the offensive. The conditional front line represents a stretched ark – Seversk, Popasnaya, Debaltsevo, Uglegorsk, Gorlovka. The center of the position is Debaltsevo – should this settlement fall, the connection between Bezler's group in Gorlovka and Mozgovoi group in Lisichansk is disrupted, and the mechanized forces of the junta will break out into operational space, cutting communications between Donetsk and Luhansk. I suppose that the main attack won't be directed towards Donetsk, but instead towards somewhere near the aforementioned cities, where it is possible to take maximum advantage of the junta's superiority in the number of armored vehicles. Furthermore, if, as it is announced, Seversk was abandoned this morning in order to avoid encirclement, then holding on to the Lisichansk protrusion will be very difficult. The fatal role for the militia in this location plays the not captured in the end Soledar, which has a dominating position with respect to Artemovsk and Seversk.

Luhansk

The heaviest fighting occurs to the North of Luhansk, where the junta's forces attempt to advance through pre-field towards Luhansk suburbs, but a peculiar positional front line emerged here already, which is formed primarily due to artillery fire and MRLS, which are actively used by both sides. By now the militia became sufficiently strong here and even tries to advance, but the overall advantage in forces still remains with the junta – that is why fighting in the vicinity of Metallist and the Luhansk airport attains increasingly positional nature, where both sides cannot achieve a decisive success. Overall, Luhansk, from the point of view of organizing defense and army, has become quite strong and if there is further accumulation of forces and receiving equipment, in perspective a full-fledged counter-offensive operation can be expected here. The city continues to be shelled and bombed, but these acts of terror don't have military significance and are directed at terrorizing the population and destroying the infrastructure.

Border.

After 9 days since the start of the offensive, it can be stated that the task of securing the border isn't solved – the junta failed to capture Izvarino in the end, even though the area of the checkpoint is being constantly shelled.
In the vicinity of Dolzhanka there is constant fighting in which the junta loses people and equipment. Krasnopartizansk also wasn't captured. The hole in the border, even though it narrowed from 150 to 70-80 kilometers, still exists, and this means that the militia managed to hold on to the principal communications. Ataman Kozitsyn gets a lot of credit for this, his people held on to a significant section of the border. In the last few days after suffering heavy losses the junta's offensive fizzled overall and the junta requires urgent reprieve in order to regroup here.

Overall, the situation in Donbass remains stably difficult and after several days the resumption of the junta's offensive operation on the territory of the DPR as well as continuation of fighting on the border with the Russian Federation and to the North of Luhansk can be expected. The war, no matter how some in Kiev would want it, won't end by July 12th, it is guaranteed to continue in July and in August, accompanied by new massive casualties and damage, because there is simply no common ground for a compromise.

The accelerated plan for capturing Donetsk fell apart thanks to Strelkov, and the military approach to solving the problem of Donetsk requires multi-week operation from the junta, with large losses and huge material expenditures. In this respect, the "48-hour blitzkrieg", with which the junta's propaganda and the propaganda of the Russian defeatists was threatening us fell through, the militia turned out to be so much more resilient and the war starts to become increasingly prolonged.

Original article: http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1658139.html (in Russian)
Tags: donetsk, donetsk people's republic, dpr, fascism, lpr, luhansk, strelkov, ukraine, war in ukraine
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