The inclusive review of fighting in Donbass for July 9 – 12th and the evaluation of the development of the punitive operation in the nearest weeks.
Development of Situation in Zone of Punitive Operation, July 9 – 12
The development of the situation in the zone of the punitive operation, which is performed by the armed units that report to the Kiev authorities, during July 9–12 allows us to draw certain conclusions. On the border direction, as it was expected, no retreat of the units of the AFU occurred. Quite the opposite. The measures for growing the grouping in order to capture the border checkpoints in Izvarino and Chervonopartizansk became evident. In this area, which is effectively semi-encircled, significant additional forces were deployed – the battalion tactical group of the 24-th mechanized brigade, which was freed up in the area of Slavyansk. That is, being intoxicated with success in the Slavyansk area, the political leadership of the punitive corpus continued to carry out its high-risk and ambitious plan for July – taking Slavyansk and sealing the Russian border. However, ignoring the obvious lack of readiness of the AFU grouping for such a large-scale plot immediately showed. The militia command figured out the "genius" tactical innovation a long time ago, which was proposed by the so-called president of Ukraine personally, according to certain data. That is, to shift supplying of the advancing grouping and its support bases as close as possible to the Russian border, trespassing it without hesitation. A powerful cover of this idea from Washington created a wide "grey" zone in this area, however, simultaneously it also revealed the idea itself.
The first signs of the fact that for the militia it is not a secret where exactly the supply routes are located emerged on July 9th, when the vehicles from the military convoy blew up on a landmine near the village Chervonaya Zarya, which is situated effectively on the Russian border. On July 10th the landmine attacks continued this time in the area of the border checkpoint "Dolzhanskiy". The detachments of the 24-th mechanized brigade that were entering the semi-encirclement did not avoid losses during that day too. However, the most dramatic events for the armed units of Ukraine played out on the early morning of July 11th, when simultaneous attacks were made by the firepower of the militia against the supporting points of the enemy in the vicinity of Marinovka and in the vicinity of Zelenopolye.
In the area of Marinovka the attack of the DPR militia hit the support point of the Border Service of Ukraine, as the result of which there were no less than 7 troops dead and wounded and no less than 3 vehicles damaged. Among others, the deputy chair of the Eastern regional administration of the Border Service of Ukraine colonel Igor Momot perished. He was awarded the order of Bogdan Khmelnitsky by the so-called president of Ukraine for organizing an ambush against the militia near the checkpoint "Marinovka" less than a month ago.
In the area of Zelenopolye, the forward base of the group of the armed units of Ukraine, which fought for the border checkpoints Izvarino and Chervonopartizansk, fell under the attack of the LPR forces. The attack was performed from more than 15 km away, apparently with full rocket packages. The losses amounted to no fewer than 19 dead and more than 80 wounded. No fewer than 24 vehicles were destroyed. The company tactical group (the strengthened company of the 1st battalion) of the 79-th airborne brigade was completely routed. Also, the company tactical group from the composition of the 24-th mechanized brigade, which was arriving to the base at night, together with the means of supplying of the battalion tactical group was routed too. As a result of this strike, the detachments of a combined strength of up to battalion were put out of action (the two company tactical groups in terms of their composition were equivalent to a battalion). The battalion tactical group of the 24-th mechanized group lost a major part of its combat readiness, losing its fuel reserves, ammunition, and means of transport for their delivery. As a result, not only was the conceived "final" assault on the "Izvarino" checkpoint disrupted, the success of which was announced on the morning of July 11th, but the forces had to retreat for regrouping. However, the retreating forces were significantly battered between Chervonopartizansk and Sverdlovsk near Alexandrovka on the morning of July 12th.
The militia command demonstrated that it is capable of not only offering the battle master plan, but also of determining the most probable area of its implementation, carrying out a search in this area and finding the object to be attacked. Uncovering the system of guarding the object and determining the precise localization of the object on the ground. Calculating the amount of forces and means for destroying the object confidently, calculating the ruote for the movement of the means of destruction, carrying out the conceived plan, and retreating and avoiding a retaliation strike in an organized manner. That is, to solve a non-standard tactical problem on the level of the headquarters of the artillery regiment of a regular army. Soviet army, for example. This way, not only tactical but also organizational capabilities of the militia are growing.
At the same time the high-risk actions of the so-called president of Ukraine reflect quite negatively on the combat potential of the armed units of Ukraine. By recklessly throwing them into a fight and demanding to carry out the tasks for which his armed units are systemically incapable, the so-called president of Ukraine simply foredooms their high losses. The result of this will be further degradation of the resilience and motivation of the armed units of Ukraine on the background of the current developments. And this degradation will only speed up, when the current activity of the punitive troops will fizzle out. The pause will appear no later than the third decade of July, and with successful militia actions it is probable that it will begin on 14-16th.
All of this allows us to make a conclusion, that on the background of the growth of militia capabilities, the armed forces of Ukraine, after a brief period of the boost of their combat capabilities, which was caused by the quantitative growth of the military detachments through mobilization, reached a peak of their abilities. And are entering the recession phase. This is due primarily to the deficiencies of the organizational structure, lack of the necessary procurement for carrying out combat, adventurism and irresponsibility of the political leadership.
As a result of the unsuccessful for the punitive corpus fighting, the situation that is difficult for it emerged currently in the area of Dyakovo, to which the significant portion of forces among those that ended up semi-encircled are pinned. From Dyakovo, as it was mentioned earlier, there is no decent road to the West, at least up to Dibrovka. As the ammunition runs out, this group will suffer increasingly heavy losses. At the same time the militia command widely uses their own heavy weapons in this area.
The difficult situation for the punitive troops also shapes out in the forrest area, from Rubezhnoye to Krasniy Liman. The hasty withdrawal of the military detachments of the punitive corpus from this area for the offensive against Donetsk and along the border, led to the removal of checkpoints, which obstructed the sabotage-reconnaisance actions in this direction. The population of the towns of Krasniy Liman, Kirovsk, Yampl in their majority shares the idea of the sovereignty of the DPR and the LPR, and Yampol wasn't actually cleansed by the punitives. As a result of this, the reconnaissance and sabotage groups of the militia perform one sensitive attack after another in this area against the individual enemy detachments, destroying small garrisons and convoys. The retreat of the militia from Seversk up to this point did not trigger a deep retreat of the squads of Mozgovoi. Thus, Seversk is currently not as much under Kiev control, but rather more of a neutral and contested ground.
The main efforts of the punitive corpus are currently directed into the area os Saur-mogila – Snezhnoye, in an attempt to prevent the isolation of Dmitrovka similar to Dyakovo and with luck to provide help to its group in the area of Dyakovo. However, it must be noted, that the initiative on this direction belongs to the DPR forces, which have an exceptionally strong position on the Saur-mogila. And for now the efforts of the punitives are directed for the most part to avoid their own defeat. In the Luhansk area the armed units of Ukraine, by wrapping the city from the West of the Metallist district, attempt to cut off the road to Slavyanoserbsk in the vicinity of Alexandrovka. The main goal of these actions is to force the LPR forces to decrease the pressure near Dyakovo and to redeploy their detachments to Luhansk. The auxiliary task is to capture advantageous positions for terrorist bombardments of the city.
On the Donetsk direction the punitive corpus carries out primarily an artillery offensive against civilian objects in Ilovaysk and Mar'inka, with the goal of forcing the militia to abandon these settlements and bind them in order to not let them carry out active offensive actions against the Donetsk airport, and with luck even to break towards it from the side of Karlovka. Once again, one of the goals is to prevent the attempts to redeploy additional militia forces in the area of Snezhnoye. In the area of Dzerzhinsk – Gorlovka – Svetlodarsk the punitive troops for now also limit themselves to artillery fire.
The forces of the armed forces of Ukraine are currently very scattered and they cannot carry out sufficiently strong attacks on any direction. Nevertheless, such a situation will be preserved for no more than the next two-three days. After this term expires, the situation for the punitive corpus will be simplified in one of two ways. Either the militia will rout one of its groups, or the regrouping will be over and the conditions for routing individual groups will disappear, and the militia will have to deflect a counter-offensive. It must be noted that the punitive troops still have reserves. And if they will decide that the militia reserves are depleted, then they will perform an attack on one of the currently passive locations, where for now there are only large-scale artillery bombardments, or they will help their border group. The latter variant is the most probable, because a relatively major defeat of the punitive corpus will have very serious political consequences for the so-called president of Ukraine. He is not going to allow it. But the task is at the limit of the abilities of the AFU. Because in order to help the group near Dyakovo it is necessary to first win near Saur-mogila. The retreat from Dyakovo to Dmitrovka significanly lowers the chances of holding on to the Luhansk airport.
Author: M.V. Litvinov
Original article: http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1664040.html (in Russian)