The rout of the South junta group http://cassad-eng.livejournal.com/27950.html and the retreat of the junta from Izvarino, Krasnodon, and Luhansk makes it possible to discuss the question of the future of the DPR and the LPR more substantively.
Despite the fact that more than 3 months passed after the start of the active phase of the rebellion, there is no absolute clarify in what exactly will be created on the territory of the rebellious Donbass. All participants of the process perfectly understand that the DPR and the LPR are temporary formations, which need to transform into something. And the question of what is it exactly that they will transform into is not as trivial as it may seem.
1. The currently existing UPR – the Union of People's Republics is more of a temporary coordination structure for the time of war rather than the seed of a new state. This structure is supposed to provide the general political and military unity of the numerous centers of power in the DPR and the LPR.
2. The Kremlin-sponsored project of Novorossia currently consists of only 2 republics and a collection of virtual governors, this doesn't match the original conception of 7-8 people's republics being transformed into Novorossia, which was effectively given up in April 2014. Nevertheless, the concept is alive, thanks to Tsaryov and a number of other people, on which the financial flows from Russia are partially locked and which the leaders of the DPR and the DPR and other groups who are not interested in the existence of Novorossia had to accept.
3. The surrogate variant of "extended Transnistria", which was considered after the partial rejection of the idea of "Big Novorossia", and which is an unrecognized state that consists of the DPR and the LPR that is dependent on the Russian Federation. This was the variant that was considered during the negotiations with Mr. Akhmetov, which preceded the retreat of Mr. Strelkov into Donetsk.
Recently the situation started to change.
The suppressed conspiracy in Donetsk http://cassad-eng.livejournal.com/16909.html and the installation of a more comprehensive control over the political processes in the DPR by Moscow provided more coherent situation management and made the plans of surrendering Donetsk and the backstage political conspiracy with the Ukrainian oligarchs unrealistic. The rough military defeat of the junta on the LPR territory and the growing combat capabilities of the LPR and the DPR militia effectively question the very possibility of the military destruction of the people's republics.
A significant quantity of vehicles and the constantly growing number of militia fighters gradually transfer the question from the plane of the survival of the republics towards the question of whether they will remain within the borders of the former Donetsk and Luhansk regions after their victory. The jumpy announcement of the Poroshenko representative Mr. Chaliy that if the situation won't be solved through talks, then it will spill beyond the borders of the LPR and the DPR is quite symptomatic. This is not a concrete offer yet, but already a thinly veiled apprehension that after the probable rout of the junta military in Donbass the DPR and the LPR militia won't stop and will advance toward Dnieper. The hasty reinforcement of checkpoints in Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, and Zaporozhye regions, the retreat of mechanized convoys through Krasnoarmeysk towards Dnepropetrovsk and from Metallist to the North of the LPR reflect the growing apprehension in the military circles. The smell of a really big defeat is in the air.
Meanwhile, the main speaker of the "party of war", Mr. Strelkov openly says http://politikus.ru/events/24538-strelkov-osvobozhdenie-kieva-ot-okkupirovavshey-ego-bandy-pedofilov-sektantov-i-prochey-mrazi-yavlyaetsya-odnoy-iz-glavnyh-celey-nashego-pohoda.html (in Russian) that his goal is to reach Kiev and to liberate it from the fascists. Considering that this is the main military figure in the DPR speaking, whom all local armed forces report to, this is effectively a political announcement, which means that even after losing Donbass the junta won't be at rest, because the forces led by Strelkov and his field commanders won't stop on the border and will advance toward Kharkov, Zaporozhye, and Dnepropetrovsk.
In this view, the retreat of Strelkov from Slavyansk not only brought trouble to the Russian defeatists, which were preparing the surrender of Donetsk to the junta, and Mr. Akmetov, whose plans of preserving his influence in Donbass went up in smoke, but also posed a difficult strategic problem before the junta – what to do with this war, in which the military victory appears quite dubious at this point. The powerless murders of civilian population and adventurous offenses that lead to cauldrons are clearly not the way in which this problem will be solved.
The matter of fact is that the "party of war", which is publicly represented by people like Strelkov, Mozgovoi, Bolotov, and Bezler (and not publicly – by the military circles in Moscow) in its idea of routing the junta in Donbass and advancing to Kiev, meets those groups which support the idea of Novorossia and invest money into Tsaryov and Co.
That is, a certain military and political alliance is forming, where the Tsaryov's group is starting to play a real political role, and the military led by Strelkov lays the groundwork for the return to the idea of "large Novorossia" not out of 2, but out of 7-8 regions. This became possible after a retreat from Slavyansk, which broke the game for the junta and the Russian defeatists, which among everything else led to certain changes in the Russian policy in Donbass – the direct control through the line of state security and the large-scale appearance of tanks, SPHs, SAMs, artillery, MLRSs, and other weapons with the militia says that the political decision was made and that the line pursued by Moscow between April 24 and July 5 was abandoned. The support became more substantive, which immediately showed in the internal structure of the DPR and in the combat readiness of the militia fighters.
In this view, the situation around the DPR is starting to change. The failure of the "defeatist party" with the surrender of Donetsk (currently effectively all involved are removed from any meaningful political levers int he DPR – Lukyanchenko, Khodakovsky, Pozhidayev – there is also currently unconfirmed information about the possible resignation of Mr. Pushilin) didn't lead to their extinction.
Only their line of conduct changed.
Because the survival of the DPR and the LPR becomes increasingly realistic, the possibility of more substantive negotiations with the junta is emerging in the perspective (the preliminary contacts with the assistant of Kolomoisky, Mr. Korban are already arranged through the people of Kurginyan), where the Russian oligarchs (Fridman and one more XXX, whom I for now won't name), which contacted Mr. Akhmetov, will try to reduce everything to the 3rd variant of "large Transnistria" as a "sensible compromise" that will allow to not disappoint the "patriotic public" (which in the case of the dump of the DPR will become fertile ground for the "patriotic maidan") and on the other hand won't lead to altogether very strict Western sanctions. Their retreat from the line of a complete dump of the DPR and the LPR was forced, the plans of surrendering Donetsk became public and the state security organs actively entered the fray. Therefore, under the banner of "save Donbass", they will attempt to reduce everything to Novorossia as a stump that consists of the DPR and the LPR. It must be understood that characters like Kurginyan are simply the transfer elements, which serve the interests of major Russian and Ukrainian financial groups.
Mr. Strelkov and the "party of war", which he represents, with their plans of a campaign on Kiev, remain a sound obstacle for these plans, because the variant of "large Transnistria" implies effectively a collusion with the fascist junta directed at dividing Ukraine, where Russia gets only 2 regions besides Crimea, and everything else remains with the junta and the Americans. From here stems the continued harassment of Strelkov from the side of Kurginyan and his sectarians and the recently tuned in prominent "surkovian", Maxim Shevchenko.
That people tied to Mr. Surkov actively participate in the talks of oligarchs about the future of Donbass poses a reasonable question of which line in Ukraine is pursued by Mr. Surkov.
As the militia proceed to liberate the territory of the DPR and the LPR, the pacifist propaganda in the spirit of "stop fighting", "we protected Donbass and that's enough", "no need to go to Dnieper", "bloodsucker Strelkov wants new victims" and so forth will increase. The goal will be that in the case of military victory it has to be limited to the territory of the DPR and the LPR and that the space of war won't be extended to the three neighboring regions, which is what the Kiev junta is so afraid of.
Blocking the aid channels for Novorossia by the Russian banks http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1674063.html (in Russian) and the attempts to suppress the donation campaigns on social networks informationally reflect one of the faces of the line of conduct of the "defeatist party", which is associated with lowering the supplies for the DPR and the LPR, so that the growth of the military might of the people's republics wouldn't be altogether critical for the junta. That the connections between the Russian banks and the American agent Mr. Nalivaychenko were revealed in this regard says that both sides aren't interested in the "campaign on Kiev", which for now is more of a long-term threat.
The low-intensity conflict will satisfy the Americans, the junta, the Russian defeatists, but the military victory of the militia may disrupt everything.
In this view the correct line of conduct will be supporting militia in their war effort in Donbass and supporting those forces, which stand for "large Novorossia" and the campaign on Kiev, because only this variant can lead to the overthrow of the fascist junta and the destruction of fascism in Ukraine at least on the left bank of Dnieper.
Correspondingly, with a high degree of confidence, the proponents of "large Transnistria" akin to Kurginyan and Co. represent the "defeatist party" of those who are interested in limiting the consequences of the junta's military defeat in Donbass and in avoiding the campaign on Kiev, because this is deadly for oligarchs like Akhmetov and Kolomoisky and also makes the situation problematic for the Russian oligarchs, who are dependent on the West and will be among the first who will be affected by the regime of western sanctions.
It must be understood that the "defeatists" are not afraid of the "campaign on Rostov" in which they try to blame Strelkov, but of the campaign on Kiev, which will effectively mean direct confrontation with the USA and its satellites, where the prize won't be the two regions, but the whole Left-bank Ukraine. This will also imply a redistribution of the property of oligarchs of the South-East – Akhmetov, Kolomoisky, and Firtash, and also a critical weakening of the positions of the Russian oligarchs who are affiliated with them. That is why Mr. Strelkov, as the main public face of the "party of war" will be attacked in the media in order to form the public opinion that is ready to agree if not with the dump of the whole Novorossia, but at least with the "large Transnistria". The junta, impersonated by Mr. Chaliy", is already announcing that it would like to start negotiating with the militia, but they don't want to negotiate http://telegraf.com.ua/ukraina/obshhestvo/1381890-chalyiy-rasskazal-pochemu-storona-donbassa-ne-idet-na-peregovoryi.html (in Russian), because Moscow is not letting them. Although even on July 9th the junta didn't want to start these talks altogether http://prosport-ru.tsn.ua/politika/u-poroshenko-kategoricheski-otkazyvayutsya-ot-peregovorov-s-terroristami-376030.html (in Russian). The retreat of Strelkov into Donetsk and the junta's defeat under Luhansk changed everything. The goal of the "defeatist party" will be direct talks between the junta and the militia, where the future of only the 2 former regions of Ukraine will be discussed and the question of continuing the war for Kiev will be put off the table.
Eventually, despite the difficult situation on the front lines in the DPR and the LPR, the final goal of the war for the militia is not the depressive analog of Transnistria, but a campaign on Kiev and its capture with the goal of forming the Large Novorossia on the territory of the Left-bank Ukraine. This may appear distant and improbable only from the side, but in reality this is from the category of the confidence of the Soviet soldiers, which during heavy fighting in 1941-1942 were sure that they will come to Berlin. In the view of the recent successes, this distant goal started to attain for now only political outlines. Meanwhile, it can be stated that there won't be a complete dump of Novorossia – one way or another it will survive, for me this is a done deal, and the question is only in which form it will be present on the political map. This will depend primarily on the militia fighters and on those who support them, because right now it is precisely them who are turning the wheel of history.
Original article: http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1674627.html (in Russian)