- We won't surrender alive
- The foreign countries will help us
The processes of internal turmoil in the junta leadership are growing. The prolonged war (it is unlikely that in March-April anybody would think that such a full-fledged war will start and that it will stretch to the end of July) exacerbated those internal contradictions that were originally present within the higher-ups of the coup. They were ready to tolerate and moderate (temporarily) their political and economical ambitions, but the patience is running out.
Even though the Americans control the junta rigidly, not letting it to fall apart, the conflicts between Poroshenko and Kolomoisky and also between Poroshenko and Tymoshenko are real. And these conflicts are systemic. Of course, Kolomoisky and Tymoshenko were explained that it is not worth it to drop Poroshenko right now. The same also concerns the fascist radicals headed by Lyashko (behind whom there are the most wacko fascists) and Tyagnybok (who is effectively in charge of the state apparatus in the Western Ukraine).
Scheduling of elections, which are to happen in mid-Autumn, is supposed to create a more manageable parliament by liquidating the disagreeable parties (the Communist Party of Ukraine and the "Party of Regions"), at the same time injecting the hastily constructed party of Poroshenko himself into the Verkhovnaya Rada, where a part of the former power party, business, and criminal element will congregate like pieces of trash. All of this will happen on the background of open rivalry with the party of Tymoshenko and its henchmen. The americans explained to Tymoshenko that she won't be a president, but the prime-minister Yatsenyuk and the parliament speaker Turchinov remained behind her, i.e., formally the No. 2 and No. 3 positions in the country.
Now Poroshenko is striking against these positions, breaking the coalition apart, which leads to the resignation of Yatsenyuk and to the new elections, which will lead to the replacement of Turchinov.
Poroshenko seeks the coalition of his party with the "Udar" of Klitschko and "Svoboda" of Tyagnybok/party of idiots headed by Lyashko. The goal is to create a controllable coalition, which would represent the interests of actual fascists, big business, and Kiev intelligentsia. "Batkivshina" here becomes redundant, it is effectively prepared for the opposition role, which actually partially even satisfies Tymoshenko, who still wants to get the desired chair in the end. Considering the economic collapse, a timely retreat from government positions will allow at least to pretend that they had nothing to do with what is happening and to dump everything on Poroshenko and whatever transitional government. That is why Yatsenyuk decided not to wait for the obvious and left the hot chair for political suicide in a timely fashion. Now ending up as far as possible from any responsibility is important for many, in order to whack the coup-mates from convenient positions.
Obviously there will be a transitional period with a technical government, which will leave us by mid-Autumn, leaving the destroyed and blood-stained remains of Ukraine behind.
As for the new Maidan, I think for now it will be deterred, primarily by the Americans and Poroshenko themselves, but if the war continues to stretch and the economy continues to fall through, then the pushed away from power Tymoshenko may attempt to use the weakening of Poroshenko's positions and to break into power. But here it must be considered that if the Americans will continue to raise the stakes, then a variant cannot be excluded when the power will be given to an outright marginal akin to Lyashko or Tyagnybok, arriving to the altogether open fascist dictatorship, throwing away even the appearance of proprieties. The Lyashko rating suggests that there is potential for the growth such sentiments, which, considering the media temper tantrums, may actually lead to significant results of such a fascist party during the elections.
Overall, the tensions within the junta continue to grow, but they are likely to become significant in medium term rather than short term.
Original article: http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1691595.html (in Russian)