cassad_eng (cassad_eng) wrote,

Situation in Donbass by July 27th

Briefly about the situation on the front lines of the DPR and the LPR by July 27th.


1. The situation under Luhansk remains stable. The front-line to the North of the city has stabilized, the offensive fizzled there. Attempts to break a corridor to the airport through Alexandrovka failed and here the enemy is now regrouping. Military action gradually reduced to systematic artillery shelling and actions of the reconnaissance and sabotage group that seep into Luhansk and against which the militia fighters contend to the best of their abilities. Due to the losses and due to the strengthening of the air defense of the militia, the intensity of junta airstrikes on Luhansk became much lower.
2. Fighting in the area of Luhansk airport and to the South-West of the city also exhibit tendency toward positional warfare, due to the lack of forces that sides cannot achieve anyhow significant movement. The front lines also stabilized in the area of Lutugino, where the militia was able to localize the break through of the enemy armor.
3. The hole on the border is now confidently controlled by the militia, the junta is no longer able to perform a serious offensive in order to close it. Control over Izvarino and Krasnodon provides guaranteed cargo delivery at least to Luhansk.
4. In the area of Alchevsk and Stakhanov the militia fighters which retreated from the Lisichansk protrusion continue to fortify their positions, waiting while the junta will regroup, pull in the artillery, and perform an offensive by those forces that it will be able to concentrate there.

Overall, the situation is if not bright, then rather stable – over a month of the offensive on the LPR territory the enemy can put only cutting the Lisichansk protrusion in its win column.


1. In the South cauldron the situation didn't change. The junta group that consists of the remains of the 3 brigades still sits there, suffering significant losses from militia fire. The last thread near the checkpoint "Marinovka" was cut off already yesterday. All of Poroshenko's talk that the encircled are receiving food and ammunition is just BS, supplying can now be performed exclusively by air, and even then with a high risk for the airplanes that drop cargo on parachutes. Of course, there is no speaking about supplying ammunition and fuel for the armored vehicles, in essence the group is now a mass of infantry with dug-in tanks and IFVs, which preserved combat readiness. The shell and rocket hunger of tubed and rocket artillery is also evident.
Overall, the situation of the encircled forces continues to get worse – a part of soldiers is scattering and runs into Russia, this leads to public temper tantrums in the occupied Ukraine. Only the lack of forces prevents the militia from putting an end to this agony.
2. In the area of Saur-Mogila and Amvrosiyevka the front lines has a positional nature for a long time, where the activity is exhibited by the way of artillery strikes and the actions of the reconnaissance and sabotage groups. The dominating position of Saur-Mogila and persistent shelling of Amvrosiyevka do not allow the junta to concentrate forces for an unblocking strike directed at saving the South group without punishment. All recent successes of the junta in this area are exclusively due to the actions of the reconnaissance and sabotage groups.
3. The road to Donetsk through Antratsit and Torez is firmly held by the militia, if the control over the highway that goes through Debaltsevo is lost, then it will become the main transport artery of the DPR up until the moment, when the South group will be terminated and supply channels through checkpoints on the South of the DPR will be established.
4. In the area of Debaltsevo the massive junta attacks continue with the goal of capturing this major transport hub that has strategic significance. Yesterday evening the junta reported capturing Debaltsevo, but actually it only entered the city under the cover of massive shelling after which heavy street fighting broke out there with big losses on both sides. This morning the fighting in Debaltsevo continued.. The loss of Debaltsevo will seriously complicate the situation in the DPR, which will essentially hang on a single supply line. It is worth expecting pulling militia reserves for counter-attacks. In essence, the direction between Gorlovka and Alchevsk is the only direction where the junta firmly holds the operational initiative and performs large-scale offensive actions with decisive goals. On the majority of other locations on the front lines in the DPR and the LPR the offensive that started on July 1st has stopped or ran into positional front lines.
5. The enemy movement to Debaltsevo led to wrapping Gorlovka from North-East, due to which the city is now partially operationally encircled, because a portion of roads were cut off by the enemy reconnaissance and sabotage grouses and the seeped through motorized infantry. The main militia forces were pushed back into the city and are now preparing to street fighting.
6. In Donetsk itself the junta offensive fizzled on the outskirts of the city. Heavy fighting near the settlement of Peski led to effectively stopping the direct offensive on the city. The junta was forced to transition to "Slavyansk" tactic, massive artillery shelling of living blocks, which is followed by slow advance of tanks with a weak support by infantry. The crisis of the first days of the assault on Donetsk (when the militia were effectively rammed into urban development area) currently is overcome and the militia is preparing to renewed fighting in the suburbs.

Overall the situation here is quite difficult, given the loss of Debaltsevo and a complete wrap of Gorlovka, Donetsk will be semi-encircled, which given the overall enemy advantage in the number of soldiers will create additional opportunities for strikes with the use of internal communications that spread from Debaltsevo into the depth of DPR and the LPR.

When in a few days we will summarize the offensive that began on July 1st, the results of fighting for Gorlovka, Debaltsevo, and in the South cauldron will be crucial for assessing it.

According to the information from our person in Donetsk.

1. Strelkov was doing fine as of yesterday. On the famous forum both he and his assistant were writing. The reasons for ceasing summaries have a military nature.
2. New questions emerged for Mr. Khodakovsky after his interview to "Reuters", where he blurted about "Buks" in the LPR. Our man (now he is not only filming but also has an automatic rifle) announces that during entering together with our reconnaissance and sabotage group into the enemy rear South of Donetsk, one of the militia groups from "Vostok" prevented them from destroying the positions of enemy mortar battery. The reasons weren't explained, automatic rifles were used for motivation. He alsy says that a group of "Vostok" militia fighters and also some cossacks instead of fighting a war run protection rings in Donetsk. The arguments on this topic are ongoing at the level of Borodai-Antyufeyev.
3. Despite the actual equipment and light firearms, the militia complain that they lack artillery and MRLS, the principal mass of which is concentrated in the LPR on the borders of the South cauldron.
Under Gorlovka, Debaltsevo, Alchevsk, and Stakhanov there are few artillery systems and that is why it is very hard to repel the attacks of the superior junta forces. The morale in the visited units is quite high, even despite the difficult situation.
4. Overall, the military buildup is gaining steam, and nation building is still mediocre. A part of the necessary organizational structures remains mostly virtual. (in Russian) – a report of military action in Novorossia for 07/26 (in Russian) – online-broadcast for 07/27

Original article: (in Russian)

Tags: donetsk people's republic, dpr, khodakovsky, lpr, strelkov, war in ukraine

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