cassad_eng (cassad_eng) wrote,

Preparing for the storm

According to the messages from the locals, a general offensive of the junta military on Donetsk will start with a very high probability in the nearest three days. The concentration of the junta forces is effectively over, all units that are more or less capable of combat were pulled, shipping of ammunition for artillery and MRLS is concluding. It is planned not only to push the militia out of the pre-field on the South but also to enter the city blocks from the North-West and the West.
Simultaneously from the North a strike will be performed on Yasinovataya with an attempt to reach to Yenakiyevo. The forces in the area of Shakhtyorsk and Krasnyi Luch will have to bind the militia reserves, and also try to actually cut the main roads that lead into Donetsk.

For the junta this is effectively a massive gamble, because if this offensive is unsuccessful, then another operational pause will be required for reinforcing the already battered military, not speaking of the fuel and ammunition. Massive losses, which the junta is suffering for 3 days now under Ilovaysk are a characteristic indicator that the losses won't be a factor, the junta will try to capture Donetsk head-on at any price. The main goal remains the same: to capture Donetsk before August 24th, so this is a classic "offensive by the date".

Significant damage and casualties among the civilian population are unavoidable, the junta already warned the population today that it should leave Donetsk, which will have to be subjected to powerful shelling and assault. Of course, not everybody will leave, which will result in a significant number of victims. In the nearest days the militia of Donetsk and Gorlovka will have to exhibit maximum resilience and stubbornness. They will have to simply stand their ground and to pull the junta military into lengthy street fighting.

At the same time Zakharchenko today said that the militia will be able to put up to 200 armored vehicles under Donetsk, including those which were captured in the South Cauldron. This is in essence the trump card, with which they will try to parry the strikes of mechanized detachments of the junta and "extinguish fires" in defense. Both sides perfectly understand that the upcoming battle for Donetsk will have a nature of general and it will in many ways determine to the benefit of which side will the war in the DPR end.
I suppose that the militia will not transition to the offensive before the junta delivers its main strike. The bet will most likely be made on exhausting the enemy in defense and on counter-strikes by mobile forces. In general, much will be decided this week.

All of this is happening on the background of preparing for some kind of "humanitarian operation", which Russia plans to start already tomorrow. Below is a video that speaks volumes.

Plus photos from the front lines.

Original article: (in Russian)

A personal message from the translator, cassad_eng:
I personally would like to wish best luck to the defenders and the civilians of Donetsk.
Many good people will die in the next several days, which may include some of my friends and relatives.
Unfortunately, killing good people is the nature and the price of fascism.

Tags: donetsk, donetsk people's republic, strelkov, war in ukraine

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