Tags: yarosh

NKVD Officer

The cease-fire has begun

By noon it is possible to state confidently that the cease-fire is mostly being observed and that the intensity of military action on the majority of locations has decreased effectively down to zero.
Nevertheless, sporadic small-arms firefights continued on a number of locations during the night and the use of artillery was noted in the area of Debalcevo, which is not surprising considering the indeterminate status of the Debalcevo cauldron, the presence of which the junta continues to deny.

During the night Yarosh's announcement of some "Right Sector" battalions advancing somewhere  suddenly appeared and then just as suddenly disappeared. There were also mutual accusations of the sides of the opposing side shelling something, but on the background of the silent front these accusations didn't look too convincing, so it is quite logical that by the morning we observed effectively a cease-fire in Donbass, although certainly there are periodic firefights for now.

How long the truce and the associated operational pause will last isn't clear yet, but if the sides will hold their fire until tomorrow, then it will be possible to summarize the results of the January NAF offensive. The question of Debalcevo, being unresolved during the January offensive, moves to the next phase of the war and so a powerful political and informational background will grow around this crucial transport hub in addition to its military significance.

Foreign policy evaluations of the events will follow today/tomorrow (some already put the cart before the horse and yell that Merkel needs to be given a Nobel peace prize). Also in the coming days it is worth expecting various provocations and also the regular accusations against Russia of disrupting the peace process.

Original article: http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2050491.html (in Russian)

NKVD Officer

Yarosh and war

[The picture above shows a scan of Yarosh's card that confirms that he had been a voluntary aide to Nalivaychenko back when Nalivaychenko was a member of the 7-th Verkhovnaya Rada.]

Briefly on the topic of Yarosh's announcements that he doesn't recognize the truce and intends to continue military action.

As it was noted easier, Yarosh is used in the junta internal conflict, where they are trying to bring down generals loyal to Poroshenko with his help, primarily Muzhenko on whom there's an attack from the side of Kolomoisky, to whom Yarosh is close. Recent announcements by Yarosh that he creates a parallel General Staff fit quite nicely to a number of announcements similar to the one from today, where Yarosh effectively undermines the General Staff authority and Muzhenko personally, suggesting that he and his circle will decide by themselves how to lead some forces and that allegedly up to 17 battalions obey them. Actually, it is quite dubious that there are so many units reporting to Yarosh (or rather to his masters in Ukraine and abroad) — without a doubt Yarosh can control several battalions due to various fascist radicals, but in the "Right Sector" itself since the spring of last year there is a divide and a part of organizations that were a part of the Right Sector no longer fulfill Yarosh's orders. Also a significant part of various punitive and territorial battalions with a brown tint exists purely on paper instead of actually being a real threat, which of course doesn't prevent the existing units from performing military action and fire on the NAF positions and the cities of Donbass. On the other side, these units have almost no heavy weapons, which are mostly concentrated in the AFU units. This especially has to do with the heavy artillery and MLRS, which inflict maximum damage on the cities of Donbass. Naturally, without having sufficient artillery support, Yarosh et al. cannot perform significant offensive action and at most will limit themselves to rafales that use the firearms available to them, SRG actions, and some bloody provocations. Naturally, the "right-sectorites" have no means for a full-fledged war, but what they have is quite sufficient to fry even the current case of a "cease-fire".
For Russia this is actually quite convenient, because right after Minsk they started to shift the blame for the disruption of the peace agreement on Russia. And here Yarosh effectively placed the blame on the junta and openly confessed that the junta will break the truce (although Psaki already said on yesterday that it is laughable to even hear about the possibility of the junta violating the truce). In this respect this will be a quite convenient pretense for Russia to put the blame on the junta if it will break the truce of the 15-th, because it will be sufficient to just point at Yarosh and say that Poroshenko no longer controls his army, which breaks the peace agreements. This clearly won't be an excess argument in the bargaining with the EU. Considering the old links between Yarosh, Kolomoisky and the american agent Nalivaychenko, here we can see a quite predictable move by the USA, which try to torpedo even that little which was signed in Minsk. Just so that you understand: the USA don't want even a short break and an exchange of prisoners. If the Americans really wanted peace, then they would long since have gotten rid of Yarosh, Kolomoisky, and other characters that lead to the escalation of the hybrid war in Ukraine. But, as we can see, all of these people are still in action. And while this supervision is preserved, other junta bosses like Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk are afraid to touch them because there's no clearance from Washington for getting rid of these people. This is one of the backup plans, if Poroshenko or Yatsenyuk are to fall out of the deck of the American interests and so absolutely wacko characters will be required in the junta leadership, which will follow the course of war to the last Ukrainian to its logical conclusion.

It is also worth noting that today the Russian Roskomnadzor announced http://www.newsru.com/russia/13feb2015/roskomextremism.html (in Russian) censorship limitations on the topic of mentioning the "Right Sector" and other fascist organizations that act in Ukraine. Now they are to be mentioned only in a negative context. The limitations are somewhat weird, they demand to ascribe "nationalist", "radical", "extremist" to them while at the same time I usually prefer to accompany them with the adjective "fascist". It is interesting if this will be in line with the new censorship limitations or if I will have to fit the required formulations?

Original article: http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2047824.html (in Russian)

NKVD Officer

Save President Poroshenko

On some Russian TV channel I noticed a peculiar film trailer in the spirit of "everybody is against Poroshenko – from Tymoshenko et al. to the Ukrainian oligarchs and fascists. All of them want war, but Poroshenko himself is not even much of a fascist (despite being one of the sponsers of the ongoing hell). And, thus, only Russia can protect Poroshenko from a conspiracy that is being prepared against him." Why would it be necessary to protect the fascist oligarch wasn't clear from the announcement, but I suppose that they'll explain it properly in the film itself.
Collapse )